By Mike Lyons Mike Lyons started his career in Orlando back in 1971 by publishing the city's first underground newspaper and promoting the first rock show at the Citrus Bowl (Cactus, Bloodrock, Potliquor and Dr. John for $3). He was MD/announcer for WORJ, WDIZ and WHTQ in Orlando, PD for Abrams' 98 Rock (WXTB) in Tampa, and spent the last eight years of his radio career as mornings/APD at WZTA Miami. From 1995-2000 he was VP of AAA Promotions at Lee Arnold Marketing. Lyons prefers to call himself a "post millennial pop culture theorist" instead of a "former record promotion weasel."

8/24/08

"THIS IS THE R.A.B. & THE N.A.B.! NOW WE KNOW WE'RE IN THERE! IF WE DON'T COME OUT OF THERE WITH OUR HANDS UP HOLDING AN ANTENNA RECIEVING A TOLERABLE RADIO STATION. WE'RE COMING IN AFTER US!" 

     Radio suffered its 15th straight month of declining revenues according to figures from the Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB) released Thursday. Local business for July was down 7% while national business was down 11%. So, while Wall Street had projected a 4% decline, radio business fell twice that, down 8% for the month.
     Overall, large markets were down 7%, mid-size were off 5% while small markets were up 2%.
     This led to C.L. King & Associates analyst Jim Boyle to declare this week that radio still isn't accepting the facts of its current life.
     "Radio has entered and seems stuck in a new, discouraging territory with the combined challenges of a secular slide and cyclical recessionary times. What are radio leaders doing to change direction? Not much, it seems to us. The industry's larger groups do not appear ready to institute revolutionary changes yet in sales, programming, promotion or station clusters. There is a notable sense of denial of how harsh the prospects have been and continue to be for radio."
      Boyle continued, "The classic CEO reply is that radio is not bleeding as badly as newspapers. We concede there is too little radio ad demand, but there is also too little rate card integrity and too little investment in radio's product and people for the long term. It very much looks to us as all rear-guard counter-punching."
     Mr. Boyle nailed the landing.
     We're now seeing more and more businessman agree with what I have been talking about for years.
     Today's radio managers are looking only to the end of their employment contracts. Maybe play the radio business out until the end of their careers.
     An incredibly selfish attitude and an attitude that ensures that radio's future is of no consequence to them. No joy, no prospects, no one using those 3 billion American tuners after they've moved on. Incredible.
     This is the result of consolidation and the adoption of an end-justifies-the-means greed that is killing an industry involved in intense competition with new hardware that gives people what they want instead of radio giving them what they want.
     Besides the bad news from the RAB this week, there was the release of a new PEW study pointing out that reliance on radio news had declined from 47% in 1994 to 35% in 2008.
     Radio's screwed the pooch and now Wall Street notes the biz is in denial about it.
     AAA as a format has been the exception to this from its beginning.
     With a business plan consisting of achievable goals, AAA has done fine since deregulation.
     A quality product from talented singer/songwriter/players presented in a bullshit-free manner.
     Two other things benefit AAA from these latest RAB statistics. Radio business is still growing in small markets, where AAA flourishes in the scene of truly connecting with its townspeople.
     Also, AAA, bless its heart, puts actual effort and programming thought into its on-air production of commercials. And has done so from the beginning.
     The AAA format has also been aggressive in its Internet initiatives, the one part of the industry as a whole that is increasing regardless of market size.
     But, I want to tell you about the other foot.
     The spot cluster business model at radio is doomed. Generations X and Y simply do not put up with them. And the amount of listeners who still do are putting up with it less and less.
     The world is changing fast. Billboarding just doesn't work like it once did. They know through empirical knowledge that it's usually not worth sitting through 4 or 5 or more spots.
     It's an instant gratification world we live in and inevitably, radio will have to evolve its advertising and billing into a model closer to the underwriting announcements on non-commercial stations.
     Or some other kind of placement that satisfies advertisers.
     Television is already trying to deal with this problem with product placement and 15 second spots.
     The future of commercial radio will involve something close to a combination of all three of these ideas.

ANSWER TO LAST WEEK'S TRIVIA QUESTION: The publisher of the Los Angeles Times for September will be former DirecTV CEO Eddy Hartenstein!

MOVIES: Dreamworks' "Tropic Thunder" joined "Iron Man" and "The Dark Knight" as the only films to spend at least two straight weeks at the top of the weekend box-office this summer, taking in $16.1 million for #1. Sony's "The House Bunny" debuted nicely with $15.1 million in second place followed by Jason Statham in Universal's "Death Race," which took in $12.3 million for third place, though it was expected to debut at #1. In other debuts, Fred Durst's "The Longshots" opened with $4.3 million in eighth place, though it was hoped to play better in the large markets. Raiin Wilson's "The Rocker" failed to make the top ten, taking in just $2.8 million. Overall the weekend was 1% below the same weekend last year. It's typically a slow movie season right now but "Hamlet 2" did well in limited release, and it'll expand wider for the upcoming Labor Day weekend. Also opening next week is Don Cheadle's "The Traitor" on Wednesday. On Friday, "Babylon A.D." with Vin Diesel opens along with the spoof "Disaster Movie" and the MGM comedy "College".

ONION HEADLINE OF THE WEEK: "Bush Told To Sign Birthday Treaty For Someone Named 'Kyoto'".

TV: Olympics are over now but did extremely well for NBC. Good for them, they paid a mint for the rights. I made appointments for Michael Phelps each night and boy, I never saw so much beach volleyball in my life. Did China get lucky with the weather or what? Up next is an apparently all-European U.S. Tennis Open from New York City and the conventions. Speaking of political coverage, Air America's Rachel Maddow will replace Dan Abrams from 9 to 10pm on MSNBC beginning September 8. Abrams will continue as a daytime anchor on the network and as the NBC News Legal Correspondent...Musical guests this week will include Juliana Hatfield on Leno Monday followed by B.B. King with Jay on Tuesday, Low Vs. Diamond on Wednesday and Chuck Berry on Friday...Conan welcomes The Hold Steady on Monday and The Virgins on Wednesday...This week on The Daily Show With Jon Stewart, its a repeat with Ben Stiller on Monday and then new shows from the Democratic Convention in  Denver Tuesday through Friday...The Colbert Report will have a repeat on Monday and then Rep. Bob Barr on Tuesday, Governor Mike Huckabee on Wednesday, author Rick Brookhiser on Thursday and author John McWhorter on Friday.

BIZ: Pandora Radio founder Tim Westergren told the Washington Post this week that his company may have to pull the plug if he and his capitol partners have to pay the Internet radio royalty rate the label's Sound Exchange is trying to impose on them. Dan Costa of PC Magazine points out that XM/Sirius pays approximately 7% of its revenues while Pandora and other Internet radio businesses are being held to a royalty formula that will cost from 70% to 300% of their annual revenues. If this is allowed to happen both institutionally and legally, the record industry will simply commit suicide a few years before their radio brothers do. Insane.
         And unnecessary.
         Don Henley put it succinctly. "YOU DON'T SEE NO HEARSES WITH LUGGAGE RACKS".

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk

Archive: 8/17/08
 
SCHMUTZ. NOTHIN' BUT SCHMUTZ
 
     It's the dog days, so I've rousted myself from the summer doldrums to watch Michael Phelps claim a record amount of Olympic gold medals, sit shiva for Jerry Wexler, the soul of Atlantic Records, and preparing for what may become Hurricane Fay arriving right here at the house in Orlando by Tuesday, my 56th birthday.
     Not much else is happening but these are my notes from the week:
 
AAA keeps growing. This time as Citadel flips it's sports FM in Birmingham, Alabama to 100.5 FM WWMM. The press release said it had a "AAA slant" and when I clicked on its stream the first thing I heard was Death Cab For Cutie and U2. Sounds like fine adult rock to me. The new PD is Dave Rossi, who put in time as PD at Alternative WRAX in B'ham and is a sharp guy from what some close friends have told me.
 
 I see that Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band will play halftime at Super Bowl XLIII over at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Sunday February 1, 2009. Miami Steve spilled it to the New York papers last week so we now officially know the Super Bowl halftime talent before the season even begins. I'd drop a Favre joke here but you have no idea how tired of that story we are now in Central Florida.
 
Remember when the MTV Video Music Awards were a big deal? Amazing how far in relevance its fallen. What was last year's bits of performances from, like, hotel rooms? Well, they're coming up again on Sunday, September 7 from the also-Viacom-owned Paramount Studios in Hollywood. The host will be British actor Russell Brand ("Forgetting Sarah Marshall"). Ok. No fistfight with Tommie Lee is on the schedule yet but Kid Rock will be performing his "Werewolves of London/Sweet Home Alabama" heet and Lil Wayne and the Jonas Brothers are also going to "perform". The big hook for this show will be the return of Britney Spears, who will try to avenge last year's bizarre...oh wait. You don't care do you?
 
You'll care about this item. Britain's Sunday Mirror reports that U2's upcoming album is likely to be entitled "No Line On The Horizon". The Mirror reports that Universal Music Group has registered the Web site NOLINEONTHEHORIZON.COM and said the new album will be released world-wide on Friday, November 14. Nice way to wrap up the Fall book.
 
The Walkmen's oxcellent new CD "You and Me" will be released Tuesday. Maybe they'll show up on the VMA's.
 
WHAT I NOTICED IN R&R THIS WEEK: Patrick Communications managing partner Greg Guy points out that since so many stations are now up for sale, multiples for a large market station may have fallen from 19-times-cash-flow to 12-times-cash-flow. Also, Radio-One and Regent are close to getting de-listed by Nasdaq as their share price drifts below $1 a share. That's what broadcasters get for eliminating programmers and talent from their equations.
 
Ain't getting any better on the newspaper side either. Wednesday, Cox announced it would sell all of its newspapers except for three. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and their dailies in West Palm Beach and the Cox Company's historical market of origin, Dayton, Ohio. It'll sell dozens of dailies in Colorado, North Carolina and Texas. Its largest paper on the block will be the Austin American-Statesman. John Morton, a newspaper analyst who has consulted for Cox, says most newspaper properties have lost half their value in just five years.
 
Over at the labels, eyebrows were raised as WMG's Lyor Cohen sold off $6.8 million worth of his stock. Yeah, sure looks funny but it's not even one third of the WMG stock he owns. Also on the label side, dear friend and vet AAA promo whiz Louise Coogan has left Decca. She's at 914.882.8944 and via email. Good luck Weez.

BAND NAME OF THE WEEK: The Interstitials

MOVIES: Somebody finally broke "The Dark Knight"'s four-week run at #1 at the weekend box-office as Ben Stiller's "Tropic Thunder" opened on top with $26 million, pretty concurrent with Dreamworks' projections. "Dark Knight" was in second with another $16.8 million, bringing its total so far to $471.5 million, passing "Star Wars" to take second place behind "Titanic's " $600.8 million on the all-time domestic box-office list. Speaking of that hallowed franchise, "Star Wars: The Clone Wars," opened strong with  a debut of $15.5 million in third place followed by Kiefer Sutherland's "Mirrors" opening up in fourth place with $11.1 million. "Pineapple Express" fell to fifth with $10 million. The weekend's other debut came from Woody Allen's "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"'s start in tenth place with an opening of $3.7 million. Next weekend's openings look like what you might find on the midway of a county fair. A little bit of everything. "Elegy" with Ben Kingsley and Penelope Cruz. "Hamlet 2" with Steve Coogan. Good buzz on both of those. The rest I have no clue on: "Death Race" with Jason Stratham, "The House Bunny" with Anna Faris, and finally, "The Longshots" with Ice Cube directed by Limp Bizkit's Fred Durst.

ONION HEADLINE OF THE WEEK: "Stalker Spaces On Why He's In Sandra Oh's Garage".

TV: I'm the type of guy who's addicted to AMC's "Mad Men" and never found the fuss worth it, but MTV's L.A. reality show, "The Hills," returns for another season Monday night at 10. Other than that it is slim pickings on television this week. Just about every talk show that might feature music guests is in reruns except for CBS's Late Show With Craig Ferguson" who has Phantom Planet on Monday, The Hold Steady on Tuesday and MGMT on Thursday. Otherwise its the Olympics on NBC until next Sunday. The Daily Show With Jon Stewart will be back with new shows from the Democratic Party Convention in Denver running next tuesday thru Friday. Notice the schedule change.

FINALLY: Couple of Web sites that have caught my eye. Magazine publishers are considering legal action against MYGAZINES.COM which allows you to read page-by-page reproductions of new issues of Blender, Smart Money, Maxim, GQ and Macworld among other titles. I also spent tonight watching a fascinating video of right-wing radio personality Laura Ingraham seething at anyone on the set of her taping her Fox News Channel show "Just In..." I actually used to like her even though I don't share her politics but that's off the table after Harry Shearer came across this off-air video and posted it on the web. Look for it at MYDAMNCHANNEL.COM which is a treasure trove of news talent freak-outs like those of Bill O'Reilly, Dan Rather and, now, Laura Ingraham. Look for the slug: FOUND OBJECTS. Highlight will be when Laura shrieks, "Don't come in my ear!!!"

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk

Archive: 8/10/08

 
      MEET THE NEW KIDS, SAME AS THE OLD KIDS
 
     The one thing I get from the Radio & Records Summit in Boulder is PRIDE.
     A format that was once thought to be shooting too low, too narrow, is now right where the rest of music radio wishes it could be right now.
     Having a loyal, growing audience of well-to-do, desirable listeners that is large enough to command attention and respect and, most importantly, continued increasing billing.
     "If there are any research consultants in the room that we haven't worked with me yet, please get with me later," said KSWD Los Angeles Program Director Dave Beasing.
     He was joking but it was clear that KSWD owner Bonneville, like WRXP New York City owner Emmis, are proud of their new program directors, their new staffs and their new format. Adult album alternative.  And they're ready to use every tool available to make the success of AAA work for them too. In markets where the stakes are the highest.
     The AAA vets were proud to have the nation's two largest markets in the fold now.
     While the rest of the music radio business sounds and acts like they are embarrassed about their lifeless, jive-filled sound. A sound of grinding 300 song familiarity that has sent time-spent-listening, billing and listener loyalty down, AAA can take pride in providing a format that actually relates to boomers and anybody else who likes great, original new music delivered by interesting people.
      The Web and HD have to be taken seriously too. Podcasting has to be considered. Not just talked about. Where there is a will there's a way. Ask WTTS PD Brad Holtz. He's got a great site for a budget that matches what Citadel's Farid Suleman spends for lunch.
      KSWD and WRXP are among the new AAA kids on the block this year.
      Welcome. Proud to have you with us. (For additional coverage of Boulder '08 Summit Sessions, visit Format News.) 

BIZ: I had mentioned a few Forests back that HD reception might be a requirement for new tuners after the Sirius/XM satellite radio merger went through. No such luck. In fact, Mel Karmazin now says it may be a year or two before a dual-tuner for satellite will become available. And that ain't gonna include an HD tuner. Again, AAA is one of the attractive side channels available in the new HD selection but will enough people ever buy enough of these things to make it worthwhile? While AAA can stimulate some reaction on the HD side, I always remember what consultant John Silliman Dodge wrote a few years back, "If they don't like the #1 channel, why would they seek to tune in their #2 channel?" Looking at the big picture, it keeps looking tough for HD on a matter of scale...And speaking of Sirius/XM, Karmazin also told the New York Times this week that he might sell the new merged company. 

MOVIES: Warner Brothers' "The Dark Knight" became the first motion picture to remain at #1 at the box-office for four straight weekends since "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" in Christmas 2003 over the weekend, taking in $26 million. It should pass "Star Wars" next weekend to take the #2 slot in B.O. history behind "Titanic". "Pineapple Express" opened well too, coming in second with $22.4 million for Sony, $40.5 million since its Wednesday opening. "The Mummy 3" was third with another $16.1 million followed by the debut of "The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2" in fourth place with a gross of $10.8 million, $19.7 million since its Wednesday opening. "Step Brothers" was in fifth with $8.9 million. The new midweek, late summer opening strategy of the studios continues when Dreamworks' "Tropic Thunder" with Ben Stiller, Tom Cruise (in a hilarious cameo), Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr. opens this Wednesday. Great reviews so far for Stiller's first writing/directing project since "Zoolander"...Also opening next weekend are "Mirrors," a thriller with Kiefer Sutherland, "Bottle Shock" with Alan Rickman, "Henry Poole is Here" with Luke Wilson, the animated "Star Wars: The Clone Wars" featuring the voice of Samuel Jackson and a well-reviewed new comedy from Woody Allen, "Vicky Christina Barcelona" starring Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz and Scarlett Johansson.

TV: The opening ceremony of the Peking Summer Olympics was a hit on Friday night as 34.2 million people tuned in to NBC. It was the highest rated television show since the Super Bowl and the biggest audience ever for an opening ceremony not in the U.S. Competition against the Olympics is slim for the next two weeks. Leno and Conan are pre-empted until Monday August 25. This week Letterman is in repeats too but there is a repeat of The Hold Steady on Tuesday. Repeats of Jimmy Kimmel will feature the Cool Kids on Monday and Los Lonely Boys on Thursday. New guests though for both Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert this week. On The Daily Show its author Ron Suskind on Monday, Florida Senator Mel Martinez on Tuesday, author Philip Pan on Wednesday and Ben Stiller on Thursday. On The Colbert Report its Jorge Ramos on Monday, Joey Cheek and Jane Mayer on Tuesday, Dick Meyer on Wednesday and Bing West on Thursday...Last Wednesday the Police wrapped up their reunion tour with a concert taped for Spectacle: Elvis Costello With...which will air on the Sundance Channel sometime in December. Exact date not confirmed yet.

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk

Archive: 8/3/08

THE AAA FORMAT IS NUCYOULER. 
 
     Back in 1997 I flew into Denver for my third AAA Summit. I rented a car and confidently took off for Boulder after landing. Just turn north off of I-70 and read the signs, I thought. No problem, middle of the afternoon. A cinch.
     Needless to say, I got lost. Wrong turn after wrong turn led me out into the country and far away from any main roads or developments. Gorgeous country surrounds Boulder but, where the hell was I?
     Now, I like to think I'm an enlightened man and will ask for directions when I need to. But, of course, I am now out in the middle of the Colorado hills abutting the Rocky Mountains and there isn't anybody to ask.
     So, I just kept rolling. And rolling.
     Until I suddenly rolled up to a fence that had warning signs on it and a larger sign on a closed, locked gate that identified that I was in front of the Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons facility!
     Rocky Flats is where they made the plutonium triggers for the hydrogen bombs. I had read about the site and now here I was at the base of a mountain in front of a locked gate on a narrow two-lane road. What the...?
     The history of it all impressed me but I half expected Army or EPA troops to race up any minute and dump my semi-beautiful ass into a truck like an episode of the X-Files.
      I slowly backed up and took off down the road, eventually finding my way back to Boulder after driving past every landmark in the city. KBCO's studios, Richie Furay's church, the Ramsey house, the University of Colorado campus and finally into the Millennium Harvest House parking lot where I ran immediately into Lucinda Williams.
     Now there's a nuclear trigger!
     Every time I listened to her "Car Wheels On A Gravel Road" the next year I thought about stopping at Rocky Flats.
 
     As the AAA community returns to Boulder for another Radio & Records Summit I welcome all of you to the Mile High City and advise you to take one of the shuttle buses from the airport. Tell 'em to take you to the St. Julien Hotel and Spa. Good luck on running into Lucinda.
     And don't worry about those nuclear triggers. Rocky Flats shipped out its last plutonium trigger in 2003 and the site has been shut down for years now for decontamination and eventual turnover as a wildlife reserve. As soon as the EPA assures Colorado that it won't be a glowing wildlife reserve.
      This year AAA can be happy and proud of its success and integrity as a terrestrial radio music format. It's doing so much better than all the rest, as I've written about repeatedly in this column.
     The convention starts Wednesday afternoon when CBS radio head Dan Mason talks with Erica Farber. While CBS has been a pioneer on developing Internet alliances and plans already in effect with AOL and LastFm, the company just announced late last week that they were ready to sell around 50 of their stations.
     Reportedly on the market will be the CBS stations in Denver, Pittsburgh, St.Louis, Baltimore, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Orlando and Portland. While KINK is doing fine, overall revenue for CBS radio was down 10% last quarter and profits were down 16%.
     Sounds like another kind of nuclear trigger in today's moribund radio industry.
     KINK PD and format icon Dennis Constantine will run Thursday morning's panel and Paragon Media Strategies Mike Henry will hold court in the afternoon. This will be a perfect time to focus on the possibilities. The possibilities. Having a large, loyal and well-to-do audience gives the format the opportunity to thrive while the rest of the plastic terrestrial radio music formats continue to fade into the background, losing their billing steam and their audience.
     On Friday, David Rahn and Ruth Presslaff will have their "New Media Show And Tell" panel. Ask them about CPM's on the Web and how is the monetizing of the Internet going. That's what we need to hear about.
To learn about.
     It always helps to have a map.

TV: AMC's "Mad Men" debuted to an audience more than twice as large as what it averaged per episode last season. 1.9 million viewers tuned in for the first show last weekend. By the way, the cool music choices (Julie London, Gordon Jenkins, Ella, Bobby Vinton) for "Mad Men" are made by our old soundtrack buddy, Alexandra Patsavis (Grey's Anatomy, The O.C.)..."Saturday Night Live" will have its earliest season debut ever, on September 13, to take advantage of the "comedic possibilities" of the presidential race. SNL will also do four prime time specials on NBC, including one the night before the November 4 election...Over my vacation I noticed that the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals had thrown out the FCC's half-million dollar fine against CBS for the Janet Jackson "nipplegate" incident. That makes the Bush administration, what? 0 for 24 this year in court decisions so far?...Great lineup for Letterman this week includes Fleet Foxes on Monday, Spiritualized on Tuesday, Randy Newman Wednesday and Alejandro Escovedo on Thursday...Leno has Conor Oberst on Wednesday, Solomon Burke on Thursday and Chris Cornell on Friday. I love Cornell's excellent new album produced by Timbaland. It works...Harry Shearer and Jamie Lidell on Craig Ferguson Monday with Conor Oberst there on Thursday...On Conan, he's got N.E.R.D. on Tuesday, The B-52's on Wednesday, Al Green on Thursday and Mason Jennings on Friday...Guests on new Daily Shows With Jon Stewart this week will include Dennis Hopper on Monday, Seth Rogen on Tuesday, Senator Charles Schumer on Wednesday and NBC's David Gregory on Thursday...Also new Colbert Reports this week with Lucas Conley and Apples In Stereo on Monday, David Carr on Tuesday, Kevin Costner and Jason Bond on Wednesday and Devon Gordon and Thomas Frank on Thursday...Finally, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan reminds me to tell you Eliza Dushku will be on Jimmy Kimmel Live  Wednesday night.

ONION HEADLINES OF THE WEEK: Soooo many good ones in the last two weeks. Here are my faves - "PRICE OF GAS RISES TO FOUR EXPLETIVES PER GALLON"
"CHINESE TV SHOW CANCELED AFTER DRAWING ONLY 180 MILLION VIEWERS" and this new classic: "AL GORE PLACES INFANT SON IN ROCKET TO ESCAPE DYING PLANET."

MOVIES: Warner Brothers' "The Dark Knight" continues to break records, coming in at the top of the weekend box-office for the third weekend in a row, all records for first, second and third weekend grosses. It took in $43.8 million and is expected to pass $400 million on Monday or Tuesday, becoming the fastest picture to ever do that. Now expected to pass "Star Wars" for second place all-time behind the $600.8 million that "Titanic" took in. With ticket prices now 50% higher than they were in 1997 it would take "The Dark Knight" to gross $900 million to match the ticket amount sold for "Titanic" by the way. "The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor" debuted in second place with a healthy $42.5 million but it was the smallest debut of the franchise so far. "Step Brothers" was in third with another $16.3 million. "Mamma Mia" was in fourth with $13.1 million followed by Brendan Fraser again with "Journey to the Center of the Earth" in fifth place with $6.9  million. Kevin Costner's "Swing Vote" debuted in sixth place with a weak $6.3 million...Opening this Wednesday is "Pineapple Express" with Seth Rogen and James Franco from the Judd Apatow factory. Maybe that'll break Batman's streak. Also opening next weekend are "American Teen," a well-reviewed documentary from director Nanette Burnstein and "Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson," narrated by Johnny Depp. I finished reading Jann Wenner's book on Thompson this week and, boy, he was crazy and colorful all right. But the drugs took quite a toll on him and the people around him during those last years...Have you caught the trailer for Oliver Stone's Bush biography, "W" on YouTube? We'll all be talking about this in October and November too.

SCHMUTZ: The newspaper business continues replicating an Amy Winehouse Saturday night as it keeps eliminating its most attractive features. Last weekend was the last time you'll ever see the Los Angeles Times' Book Review section. Same goes for the, also Zell-owned, Hartford Courant, and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Here in Orlando at the Sentinel, book reviews were still there today but their 20-year restaurant critic, Scott Joseph, is gone. Adding to the print insanity was the New York Times apologizing for running the "wrong Crossword Puzzle and solution" a week ago Wednesday. The final straw in this wacky newspaper month had to be when a New Hampshire/Vermont daily, "The Valley News," actually misspelled its own name on its masthead on July 21. "Valley Newss". It printed a properly spelled correction on July 23. THEIR OWN MASTHEAD! A friend of mine (who still covers radio!) put it succinctly: "You can't voice track newspapers."

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk

                                                     
Archive: 7/20/08

LAST CHANCE FOR HD?
    
     I saw this story in Radio & Records on Friday:
"Advertising guru Barry Lowenthal, president of the Media Kitchen, told attendees of a Wachovia Media Team teleconference Friday morning that, 'radio has not been able to increase its CPM's in a meaningful way because its audience is not increasing. In fact, its audience is probably decreasing. The product is poor for the most part. You have your big celebrity DJ's, but for the most part, the quality of radio content is just not very good.'"
     AAA, be very grateful for who you are right now. The rest of radio, particularly other music formats, is hurting right now. Ain't nobody jazzed about the same songs over and over or the card-reading blandness that usually fills the space between songs. And you think people are listening to the commercials?
     Obviously, more and more advertisers don't.
     The Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB) released it's June billing numbers on Monday and they were down 10% locally and down 13% nationally in June.
     The radio industry continues to ridicule and complain about the Personal People Meters in the trade and business press.
     Arbitron didn't help their cause when they first announced last Monday that they've "gotten their best data ever!"
     Followed by the revelation Thursday that in-tab PPM in the 18-34 demo was down 10%
     Who wants to take this incoherent business seriously?
     At least AAA billing is doing just fine and the numbers are looking just fine.
     They've taken the risk of investing time, trust and capitol in people who can deliver valuable product to a loyal, well-off demographic.
     And they're playing so many of the thousands and thousands of songs that inexplicably are not on the corporate playlists.
     It's paying off.
     
    Next up: Internet radio and HD radio.
    Looks like HD radio will get its last chance to actually make it or break it in the American marketplace as FCC commissioner Jonathan Adelstein (D) says he is ready to join chairman Kevin Martin (R) and Robert McDowell (R) in voting to confirm the XM/Sirius merger under certain conditions. One Adelstein condition would include requiring new satellite tuners to be HD ready.
    Their is speculation that Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin may be ready to accept the deal if it will assure the merger approval.
    That decision, combined with the price of HD tuners finally falling below $100, would give the NAB what they say they need to get HD established.
    The increased availability of tuners would be accompanied by a comfortable price point finally.
    Now, you'd have to have a reason to tune in.
    AAA is now and would be one of the main attractions in the HD side channels.
    Bring 'em on!
  
    The debut of the new Apple iPhone, which is 3G and only $199, is blowing out doors. Pandora's success with the iPhone makes Internet radio look like it'll surely benefit.
Pandora found itself as the #3 most added application to the iPhone out of more than 600 apps available! Pandora says it has streamed over 3 million songs over 200,000 created stations in the first week, attracting one new iPhone listener every two seconds since the launch. Listeners are averaging close to an hour a day.
   AAA can't wait until WiMax hits the market.

MOVIES: Boy! Do they miss Heath Ledger! Warner Brothers and director Christopher Nolan's Batman saga, "The Darkest Knight," had the biggest film opening ever as it took in a record $155.34 million over the weekend, passing last year's $151.1 million opening of "Spiderman 3". Universal's  female targeted alternative, "Mamma Mia," debuted well in second place with $27.6 million. "Hancock" took in another $14 million in third followed by "Journey to the Center of the Earth" with $11.9 million and "Hellboy II" in fifth with $10 million. The weekend's other debut, Fox's "Space Chimps," disappointed with a less than expected $7.4 million in seventh place. Fox was still sweltering after Eddie Murphy's "Meet Dave" died in its inaugural last weekend and the under-performance of "Chimps" led Fox veepee's to blame others underneath them and even people walking by in the parking lot. Drinks were consumed and swear words filled the adjacent spectrum.
Too bad. Didn't help...Opening next weekend is "The X-Files: I Want to Believe" with David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson from creator/director Chris Carter and against that, "Step Brothers," with Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly. Coming the week after that (August 1) will be "The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor with Brendan Fraser," "Swing Vote" with Kevin Costner, "Brideshead Revisited" with Emma Thompson, "The Rocker" with Rainn Wilson and finally, "Midnight Meat Train" with Vinnie Jones. And the award goes to...

ONION HEADLINE OF THE WEEK: "Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In."

TV: The buzz for the second season of AMC's "Mad Men" increased exponentially this week as it collected a Woodie full of Emmy nominations. It will begin that season this Sunday at 10pm...See if you can follow these names in the correct direction: Rachel Maddow-Keith Olbermann-Katie Couric. Stop the music!...Musical and other guests this week. Shows always new unless indicated otherwise. On Letterman it's Augustana on Tuesday, Grizzly Bear on Wednesday and the Black Kids on Thursday...On Leno, he has Alanis Morissette on Monday, The Duke Spirit on Tuesday, The Time on Wednesday and Gnarls Barkley on Monday 7/28...This week on the now Sarah Silverman-less Jimmy Kimmel Show, it's Alanis Morissette on Tuesday, Los Lonely Boys on Wednesday and Does It Offend You Yeah? on Thursday...Craig Ferguson welcomes Jakob Dylan on Wednesday 7/30 and The Hold Steady on Friday 8/1...Conan has The Ting Tings this Monday...On The Daily Show With Jon Stewart this week it is author Richard Bittner on Monday, Will Ferrell on Tuesday, author T.J. English on Wednesday and George Michael on Thursday...Guests on The Colbert Report this week will be Senator Jim Webb on Monday, Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings on Tuesday, a performance by Nas on Wednesday and astronaut Garrett Reisman on Thursday. The week after that it'll be a performance by Toby Keith on Monday 7/28, Kevin Costner on Tuesday 7/29, a performance by Crosby, Stills and Nash on Wednesday July 30 and former astronaut Buzz Aldrin on Thursday July 31.

SONG OF THE WEEK: "Taking the Farm" by The War On Drugs. What are they putting in the water up in Philadelphia? It's booming like '92 or '67 up there.

SCHMUTZ: Chicago Tribune editor Anne Marie Lipinski resigned last week as did the publisher of the Los Angeles Times and the Orlando Sentinel's Tallahassee bureau chief after 25 years. Newspaper bodies continued to hit the floor in Atlanta and Honolulu among many others. The people keep leaving while they can still keep their dignity...NPR's "Bryant Park Project," a hipper version of "Morning Edition" with host Alison Stewart (MTV, MSNBC) had the plug pulled after over 9 months (mostly online). Cost too much...Comic-Con comes to San Diego this week. Over 125,000 expected. Zack Snyder's (300) version of "Watchmen" will get a first look as will J.J. Abrams ("Lost") new "Star Trek" flick (with Winona Ryder as Spock's mom!). Folks will also get a look at "Buffy" creator Joss Whedon's new series "Dollhouse" coming to Fox in January.

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk
                                                                    
Archive: 7/13/08
 
SUICIDE ISN'T PAINLESS: HOW AAA WILL CONTINUE TO BEAT THE STREET
 
     "The marketing community, already dealing with a slumping economy and an increasingly consumer-controlled media marketplace, must confront another reality: The face of the American consumer is changing rapidly."
     "It's not news that the nation is aging, but the fact that the average U.S. head of household is just six months shy of 50 is a startling statistic."
     So begins Peter Franchese's cover story headlined, "The Changing Face of the U.S. Consumer" from the July 7 edition of Advertising Age magazine.
      Ad Age decided to include me in a free three month subscription so, as I usually do with any publication (OCD or cute personal habit? You decide), I read these issues cover to cover.
      The article by Franchese reveals what we can learn from census data and what it means for both brands and the American economy as a whole.
      The main point made is that the baby-boomer generation will continue to make an enormous and important impact on our national economic well-being.
      "The average U.S. head of household is now nearly 50 years old (49.5, to be precise). But here's the bigger story: More than 80% of the growth in the number of households in the next five years will be among those headed by people 55 and older. That's pretty scary stuff for the youth-obsessed."
      What Advertising Age is telling the advertising industry on it's front page is that the industry standard of focusing exclusively on the young so that you can influence their consumer decisions and cement brand-loyalty into them for life is a mistake.
      Because the available money is still with the baby-boomer generation as it ages.
      Commercial music radio committed suicide after deregulation by slashing product development fees by eliminating on-air talent and programmers.
      The same 300 songs, six clocks and one slogans at every station across the country in every genre.
      Suicide. Time spent listening down, cume down, billing down. Value down.
      The record labels still make 80% of their money from $20 CD's, so even though the market has demonstrated a massive turn from album purchases to song purchases, labels still focus on CD sales after inexplicably refusing to market songs through the Internet. Oh, and just before the explosion of the Web, the labels officially abandoned marketing singles.
      Suicide. What was Warner's share on Friday? $7.22? Less than half of what it was a year ago.
      You don't even want to talk about radio's public stock average's last week. Start with Citadel at 83 cents.
       "Can these older consumers (55+) whom many in marketing have ignored for so long, pick up the spending slack? Well, they've been doing pretty well lately. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its annual consumer-spending surveys that households headed by people 55 to 64 increased their total spending at almost twice the rate of all households (60% vs. 32%) in the most recent five-year survey period. No other age group comes even close to that growth rate."
      Francheses's article points out that since generations X and Y are smaller than the boomer generation, they don't provide as much spending as the boomer generation. The boomers saved, gens X and Y have zero savings and a mountain of debt. Much larger than their boomer precedents ever had.
      Boomers have pensions and health insurance, especially if they're veterans or ex-government workers. They've had investments longer so the nut is bigger.
      And they are not retiring. They're continuing to work. And spend.
      It's just that I've seen for the last twenty years, first in classic rock and then in AAA, an aversion to buying older demos on the regional and national ad agency level.
      We've all been fighting that for our entire careers on the commercial AAA side of the aisle.
      It's just tremendously encouraging to see Advertising Age shining a long-delayed light on the simple fact that AAA programmers and managers have known from the start.
      GO WHERE THE MONEY IS!
      AAA's been waiting for you...

BIZ: Here's another item that shows you how much and how fast the world is changing. From Variety last week. "Broadband Internet TV has overtaken cable TV in France according to audience measurement company Mediametrie." In its latest Pay-TV report, which includes IPTV data for the first time, Mediametrie estimates French ADSL TV viewers at 8.5 million as of June 15 versus 6.0 million for cable. Results underscore France's status as Europe's most vibrant Internet TV market, energized by deep-pocketed aggressive IPTV operators such as France Telecom-Orange, Free and SFR-Neuf Cegetec. "ADSL TV is free for all broadband subscribers in France and it will continue to grow. Cable will most probably stagnate," said Francois Godard, an analyst London-based Enders Analysis. I knew the world was flattening but some parts of the world are flatter than others already. I had no idea broadband Internet TV viewing had passed cable viewing anywhere yet. But in Europe the relationship of regulators and ISP companies is way ahead of anything in the U.S. market...Don't know if this will turn around EMI's fortune's but their new CEO of the recorded music division is Elio Leoni-Sceti, the former senior manager of household cleaning products at Procter & Gamble. That should do it.

TV: A new season of "The Closer" with Kyra Sedgwick starts Monday at 9pm on TNT followed by the season debut of "Saving Grace" with Holly Hunter at 10pm, also on TNT....On Tuesday, Major League Baseball holds its last All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium (it's being replaced by a new one immediately next door after this season). It's on Fox. Look for shots of...MAH-donna..."Project Runway" returns for it's last season on Bravo this Wednesday at 9pm. Heidi Klum, Nina Garcia, Michael Kors and Tim Gunn are back. Show owner, The Weinstein Company, is in legal wars with NBCU but plans to move the show to Lifetime and Los Angeles for a new season with new producers this Fall...VH-1 Rock Honors: The Who will be this Thursday from 9-11pm. and then at least once a day on VH-1 through Labor Day...Get ready for Boo Weekley Fever! Tiger's here and not there but ABC and The Golf Channel will cover the British Open from Royal Birkdale starting Thursday morning...Every show's new this week. Letterman has Jason Mraz on Monday, The Hold Steady on Wednesday, John Mellencamp on Thursday and David Sedaris on Friday...Leno has James Hunter on Monday, Jakob Dylan on Tuesday, Gavin Rossdale on Wednesday and Coldplay on Thursday...Conan has K.T. Tunstall on Tuesday, Dr. Dog on Thursday and the Steeldrivers on Friday...Jimmy Kimmel has the Cool Kids on Thursday and Minus the Bear on Friday...Comedy Central has new Daily Shows With Jon Stewart and Colbert Reports this week but guest lists weren't available at press time.

ONION HEADLINE OF THE WEEK: "GIANT UNDERSEA CEPHALOPODS TARGETED BY PEPSI." And maybe EMI now.

MOVIES: Guillermo Del Toro's "Hellboy II: The Golden Army" debuted at #1 over the weekend with $35.9 million. Last week's topper, "Hancock," fell to second with another healthy $33 million. "Journey To The Center Of The Earth" debuted in third with $20.6 million. More than $11 million of that came from 3-D screens. "Wall-E" was in fourth place with $18.5 million followed by new mother Angelina Jolie's "Wanted" in fifth with $11.6 million. The big bust news of the weekend was the meager gross of Eddie Murphy's "Meet Dave," which disappointed with only $5.3 million in seventh place. Shades of "Pluto Nash"! Overall the weekend box-office was down 16% from the same weekend last year but next weekend should be huge with the much anticipated arrival of Christopher Nolan's second Batman flick, "The Dark Knight," featuring Christian Bale, Michael Caine, Maggie Gyllenhaal instead of Katie Holmes and the late Heath Ledger as The Joker. Reviews have been terrific. Also opening is "Mamma Mia!" with Meryl Streep, Pierce Brosnan and Colin Firth and "Space Chimps" with the voice of Patrick Warburton (The Tick, Puddy on 'Seinfeld').

NEXT WEEK: Live coverage of Bob Allen's Household Cleaners Confab from Sun Valley.
                                                                                                                                      
—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk

Archive: 7/6/08

SCHMUTZ. NOTHING BUT SCHMUTZ.

     Hope you all had an enjoyable Fourth. Time for me to clean out the notebook:

1.  The bodies continued to fall at the Tribune Company and across the entire newspaper business in the last two weeks.
     After slashing staffs at The Hartford Courant, The Baltimore Sun and the Chicago Tribune, among other papers they own, the Tribune Company announced a cut of 250 positions this week at the Los Angeles Times, including 150 editorial positions. That's more than 15% of the paper's staff.
     Variety repeated what I revealed in my last Forest column, that the Tribune Company could be in danger of defaulting on its debt and interest payments next year and that if income doesn't improve at the papers, Trib CEO Sam Zell would put the Los Angeles Times up for sale.
     He already got $650 million from Cablevision for Newsday and is actively seeking a buyer for the Chicago Cubs and Wrigley Field.
     Will he find customers?
     Meanwhile, in June, McClatchy, owners of the Miami Herald and Sacramento Bee, among others, announced they were cutting 10% of their staff across the board while cuts of a similar amount were announced at the Detroit News and Free Press, The Palm Beach Post, The Tampa Tribune and the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel too.
     Here in Orlando, where the Tribune Company has pioneered its "new" look, Pulitzer-Prize-winning Editorial VP Jane Healy has followed publisher Kathleen Waltz out the door.
     Again, it's sad to see the newspaper business following the same business model that radio used during its ungraceful and ultimately self-destructive move after deregulation. Eventually cutting out talent and programmers to increase profit margins rather than investing in making a better product to attract new customers.
     Business 101.
 
2.  I hear that the AAA panel at the recent Conclave in Minneapolis went extremely well. The panel head, Brad Savage, the Program Director of Saga's WCNR in Charlottesville, Virginia had a healthy early morning crowd that resulted in some big-picture takes on the format. Wisconsin radio legend/veteran Jonathan Little, now with Troy Research, told Brad that it was the best format session he saw the entire weekend. It was also encouraging for me to find out that one of Savage's mentors, Midwest Communications' Jack Lawson, has now flipped the company's KDAL-FM in Duluth, Minnesota to AAA as 95.7 The Bridge. Lawson is a terrific fellow who I met years back when he was programming AOR in Michigan. He was OM/PD at KBXR in Columbia, Missouri for several years and I wish him well up on Lake Superior and welcome yet another AAA signal to the family.
 
3. Also at the Conclave was a buzzed-about presentation from Inside Radio founder Jerry Del Colliano, whose session on The Next Generation Of Radio emphasized the new approaches radio has to embrace to attract younger listeners. Del Colliano has spent the last four years teaching at Southern Cal after his distinguished radio career and specifically advised "that podcasting will be the future". And I agree with him wholeheartedly on that. Later that day, N.A.B. President David Rehr and The Sound Exchange's general counsel, Michael Huppe, went at each other vociferously over the labels' proposed Radio Performance Royalty Rates, which, since the Conclave, have suddenly appeared DOA in Congress. Cross your fingers.
 
4. Here's my point on the labels attempt to get radio to pay a new royalty on records played. The Radio Advertising Board (RAB), in their recommendation that the radio business now embrace "posting," in effect, guaranteeing reach and frequency per advertising contracts, just like television, the Internet and newspapers already do, pointed out that on-air radio revenue dropped 7% in the first quarter of 2008, continuing a seven-year run of slow to no growth. The record industry, in an attempt to reverse their sales slide, has now planned to go after a massive new annual payment from radio to prop up their profit margins. An industry showing no growth (other than AAA and Spanish in music formats) is going to be your new source for income? After playing and breaking artists for you for decades? One can see how hard it is to get congressional support for this proposal.
 
5. Speaking of sales in 2008. Nielsen Soundscan last week said that CD sales are down 16% in the past 12 months, while downloads have gone up 34% in the same time frame. What was really interesting is that vinyl sales have almost doubled this year so far, from 454,000 in 2007 to 803,000 so far in 2008. Hmmm.
    Another note from the sales numbers so far in 2008 - 3 out of the top 6 selling CD's in the country are AAA this year. Here are the numbers:
Lil Wayne's Tha Carter III 1.5 million UMG Jack Johnson's Sleep Through The Static 1.2 million UMG Mariah Carey's E=MC2 1.1 million UMG Coldplay Viva La Vida 971,000 EMI Leona Lewis Spirit 830,000 SONY/BMG Juno Soundtrack 828,000 WB
 
Jack Johnson, Coldplay and The Kinks, Cat Power, Belle & Sebastian and Kimya Dawson from the Juno soundtrack make up half of the biggest sellers of the year so far. All AAA artists. 
 
TV: NBC Universal announced this afternoon that, along with the Blackstone Group and Bain Capital (who just purchased Clear Channel with Thomas H.Lee), they had bought the Weather Channel for $ 3.5 billion. Hey, here in Florida, the fourth largest state, we'll all be tracking Bertha on it allllllll week.It's worth it...New shows start coming to summer cable this week. "Burn Notice" returns on the USA channel this Thursday, July 10 at 10pm..."Project Runway" begins its last season on Bravo a week from Wednesday on July 16. Heidi and Nina will return for another season when the show moves to Lifetime for another run this Fall. "The Closer" and "Saving Grace" return to TNT next Monday, July 14... Enjoy the "Rescue Me" mini-sodes on FX through the next month. There are ten of them but Denis Leary's Emmy-nominated show won't return with full new episodes until next Spring...Guests on talk shows this week include a repeat of Dr. John on Letterman this Friday, Leno is new with Los Lonely Boys on Tuesday, Sara Barielles on Wednesday and Willie Nelson and Wynton Marsalis on Thursday...Conan's new with Steel Train on Monday and Joe Cocker Wednesday...Tristan Prettyman on a repeat with Carson Daly on Monday...Miss Coldplay on Jon Stewart? It's a repeat on Monday night, as is Ted Koppel on Tuesday, James McAvoy on Wednesday and author James Harding on Thursday...Colbert is repeats too with Will Smith on Monday, next PBS star Neil Degrasse Tyson on Tuesday, Rep. Robert Wexler on Wednesday and author Barbara Ehrenreich on Thursday.

ONION HEADLINE OF THE WEEK: "Bush Tours America to Survey Damage Caused By His Disastrous Presidency."

MOVIES: Despite ho-hum reviews,Will Smith enjoyed his fifth number one opening on a July 4th weekend, as "Hancock" opened with $66 million over the weekend, and a hefty $107.3 million since it started previews last Tuesday. "Wall-E" fell to second with another solid $33.4 million followed by "Wanted" with $20.6 million in third place, "Get Smart" took in another $11.1 million in fourth and "Kung Fu Panda" rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. Box-office was down overall for the first time in a month, 4% less than last year's July 4th, still, Hollywood is up 2% year-to-date... Opening next weekend is "Hellboy II: The Golden Army" with Ron Perlman, Selma Blair and "Hobbit" director Guillermo Del Toro. Also opening is "Journey To The Center Of The Earth" with Brendan Fraser and....lots of CGI for the kids. Plus, Eddie Murphy is also back next weekend with "Meet Dave".

FINALLY: One of my old favorites, Buddy Miller, made the cover of No Depression's last issue in June. The magazine will continue online and has plans to expand their Web site, especially expanding their amount of reviews. Subscriptions had stayed at solid levels in recent years, but a drastic decline in record company advertising put No Depression in the red. Not only will their online site continue, the staff will now produce a semi-annual "Bookazine" in cooperation with the University of Texas Press. The hybrid of book and magzine will debut with its first edition in the Fall.

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk
                           
Archive: 6/22/08

RADIO'S CAVALRY MAY BE ALL HAT AND NO HORSES
 
     This is a followup to last week's column on Sam Zell, Randy Michaels and Lee Abrams' newly purchased Tribune Company newspapers. I suspect that upcoming massive cutbacks at their company and other large remaining American newspaper publishers could help damage, not only journalism itself, but render individual columnists extinct as costs are cut. Just like radio did with their on-the-air personalities after deregulation.
     That my local daily, the Orlando Sentinel, is the first of the Tribune papers to display a new so-called, revolutionary design today, it's close to my heart. I started my journalism and radio career in this town. And as the radio industry has continued to decline in its almost suicidal elimination of attractive product in music and personality, there has been an ongoing theory in the radio industry that the Tribune company, with it's recent accumulation of former radio (Clear Channel particularly) programming notables such as Michaels and Abrams, might result in the company picking up the remnants of the Mays' family debacle in taking Clear Channel private, where they had to sue the banks to complete the deal.
      My fellow Web columnist Jerry Del Colliano keeps reminding me, Zell loves to buy on the cheap. Buy low, sell high.
      The next step in this theory is that Zell, by buying many of the remaining  Clear Channel stations, could rejuvenate the business.
      However, this theory may be just a pipe dream.
      The following is from Rick Edmunds of the Poynter Institute, the iconic journalism and media school in St.Petersburg over on Florida's west coast. The company owns the St. Petersburg Times and the Congressional Quarterly, among other publications. Under the headline "It's The Debt, Stupid," Edmunds wrote last Tuesday June 17, 2008 :
     "When Sam Zell and his lieutenants opine on the state of the newspaper industry and the drastic remedies required, as they have in recent weeks, it puts me in a mood to scream. "
     "Yes, times are tough. But the draconian cuts they are imposing on employees and readers are going largely to service the ridiculous levels of debt they had the bad judgment to take on."
    "Let's take a look at the numbers. Zell's Tribune began last December with more than $12 billion in debt. Goldman Sachs analyst Peter Appert wrote then that the company would face around $1 billion in debt payments this year, which cash flow from its operations would barely cover. Things aren't even working out that well, with revenue declines much worse than expected."
     "For the first quarter of 2008, Tribune reported cash flow of about $200 million from operations. Interest payments totaled $263 million.
     "Forget profits, obscene or otherwise, the company operated at a loss."
     "If an industry, (newspapers), loses 20 percent of revenues over two years, even more in problem spots like Florida and California, you don't need an M.B.A. to figure out the necessity of bringing down costs. Still, I think operators like Zell are squishy, where others (Scripps, N.Y.Times, Washington Post) are forthright on the concurrent need to keep heft and quality in the print product and most aggressively in new digital operations."
     "Frankly, I don't think they (Zell & the Tribune Company) have the money to do it - because the banker has to be paid first"
         
     See what I see? Zell doesn't even have the money to make his debt payments for the papers he bought at the Trib. How can he afford to buy Clear Channels radio stations even at fire sale prices? He can't.

BIZ: If you're wondering about the new Tribune company design that began with today's Orlando Sentinel. It's not much. Lotsa graphic changes and bulletin points on front pages of each section. Despite my fears, columnists in all sections are highlighted at the top of the front page of that section, so they're still employed. On the down side, stories are noticeably shorter and they're all in boxes and there are less of them, especially in the front section. Much ado was made of including items from the Web but there were just four single paragraph excerpts from four different political bloggers in the Opinion section and I had never heard of any of them. So it doesn't look like bodies are going yet but the changes don't really amount to much. If you're wondering about the new "more column-inches" edict to justify salaries, the only time I noticed anything different was sports columnist Mike Bianchi's 1,800 word bloviation on Florida Gators coach  Urban Meyer. Ads were everywhere (maybe they made their 50/50 goal) but Susan was happy. The comics were still there in four page color. So we won't cancel the subscription yet...For those who may have missed it this week, the rage for journalists and media types period was Tribune Company Innovation V.P. Lee Abrams umpteen point blog about the re-invention of journalism. "I am surprised reporters on Iraq are actually in Iraq!" Perhaps pictures of the reporters dodging bullets would be cool! I've enjoyed Lee's stream of consciousness rambles for many years and, yes, I thought some of his points had validity but many of his points sounded like stoned ramblings. One journalist-critic summed it up best in a parody demanding "The Tribune papers should use a BIGGER FONT. Like 24 pt Alburtus Extra Bold!" At least it was fun. If your job wasn't on the god-damn line.

TV: Well, you know it's officially the dog days of summer now and there's little on that's new or special. Wimbledon starts Monday and runs for the next two weeks if you're into Maria, Ana and Roger. Tennis still suffering from a lack of charismatic new stars...Guests this week on new Daily Shows With Jon Stewart will include actor James McAvoy on Monday, Coldplay on Wednesday and Ted Koppel on Thursday, guests on new Colbert Reports will include author Barbara Ehrenreich on Monday, Will Smith on Tuesday and authors Paul Goldberger and Neil DeGrasse Tyson on Wednesday...New Letterman's this week with Tift Merritt on Wednesday and Wild Street Orange on Friday. Coldplay will be on with Dave next Monday the 30th...Leno and Conan in repeats this week with Sheryl Crow again on Leno this Thursday and on Conan, it's another  chance to see the Drive-By Truckers on Monday, Billy Bragg on Tuesday and The Raconteurs on Friday...Craig Ferguson is new with Amos Lee on Monday night and Phantom Planet on Tuesday...Cyndi Lauper will be on a new Jimmy Kimmel on Thursday...NBC announced this morning that Tom Brokaw will be hosting Meet The Press on NBC's Sunday mornings through the election. Bet on MSNBC Political Director Chuck Todd to end up in the chair full-time after that. I just got a feeling.

ONION HEADLINE OF THE WEEK: "New VH1 Show Cancelled For Not Being Pathetic Enough."
'Unfortunately, the program, (Knight Life), lacked the petty and reprehensible acts that demean all humanity and make for good, compelling television," said Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman. He added that VH1 would consider bringing the show back if series star Christopher Knight were to become so distraught by the cancellation that he had to be hospitalized for an unsuccessful suicide attempt.

MOVIES: The only positive reviews were apparently uttered under the Cone of Silence but Warner Brothers' "Get Smart" opened about $5 million better than expected, taking in $39.2 million over the weekend to top the weekend box-office. "Kung Fu Panda" had $21.7 million in second. "The Incredible Hulk" finished close behind with $21.6 million for third. Paramount's "The Love Guru," with Mike Myers, stumbled into fourth place with just $14 million. Way less than tracking indicated, ($20 m), so don't look for any franchise extension on this idea. Opening next weekend is Disney/Pixar's latest, "Wall-E," about people leaving earth and forgetting to turn off the last robot, sorta like the story of the rest of Dana Perino's year. Voices are from Sigourney Weaver, Fred Willard and Jeff Garlin. Also opening is "Wanted" with Angelina Jolie and James McAvoy. It's an extremely well-reviewed version of a graphic novel, not too unlike "Mr. & Mrs. Smith," that may be  quite a sleeper. Also opening is "Mongol," a Russian biography of a young Genghis Khan. I, uh...

SCHMUTZ: I still think a deal will be struck but the Screen Actors Guild could begin their strike a week from Tuesday (July 1) shutting down TV and movie production again. Something tells me the producers are ready to cough up new DVD  and Internet rates though. They don't want to go through this again. The actors will win by getting something and also signing a shorter deal. Three years instead of 5 or 10...The XM and SIRIUS merger is all set now but their stocks got shredded Thursday when Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienke told clients to pass on both companies because " any imminent merger-related strength has passed. Declining cash-flow shows no signs of turning back up."...It became official this week that our old friend Harry Shearer from "Spinal Tap," "The Simpson's," and KCRW's "Le Show" will get his star on the Hollywood Walk Of Fame next year...iTunes sold its five billionth song last week. It's also selling/renting 50,000 movies a day now,  by the way...Great AAA panel coming up Friday morning at the Conclave in Minneapolis. Format bright light Brad Savage from WCNR in Charlottesville will be joined by Steve Nelson from KCMP, Jeni Grouws from KDEC in Decorah, Iowa and Susan Groves from WLCE in Springfield, Illinois along with Marc Ratner and Drew Murray on the label side. This will all happen after the breakfast buffet featuring "some kind of meat..." Enjoy.
The Forest will return in two weeks on July 6.

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk

Archive: 6/15/08

- 30 -
 
     "I'd like to do this tonight for a longtime friend of the E Street Band who passed away suddenly. Tim Russert was an important, un-replaceable voice in American journalism. I watched him hold our politicians feet to the fire on many Sunday mornings. He was always a strong voice for honesty and accountability in American government."
     "But beyond that he was a lovely presence, a good father, husband and good guy. He was a regular at many E Street Band shows and I'm going to miss looking down and seeing that big smiling face in the crowd."
     "We send this out all the way back to the states tonight for his son Luke, his wife Maureen, his dad Big Russ, and all the Russert family."
     "Tim, God bless you. We will miss you."

      - Bruce Springsteen introducing "Thunder Road" Saturday night at Cardiff Millennium Dome Stadium in Ireland
     
     Personally, I couldn't have said it any better in dealing with the sudden death of NBC's Washington Bureau Chief Tim Russert this past Friday afternoon.
     What?
     You're kidding me.
     He was only 58.
     Goes without saying that I admired Russert for his steady non-partisan questioning of politicians and the analysis of what was really going on during his 20+ years at NBC. Particularly during the recent and seemingly endless parade of Democratic presidential primaries.
     However, what Russert really represented to me was good journalism and I see journalism getting lost in the flattening of the world in our new digital age.
     In last week's Forest I mentioned the abrupt ending of coverage of radio at the Washington Post and the New York Daily News.
     On Thursday the Tampa Tribune cut 250 jobs.
     A week ago Thursday, the Tribune company's Sam Zell and Randy Michaels, during a Wall Street conference call, talked about measuring productivity in the future based on the amount of column-inches a reporter produced. They had discovered that the average journalist at their Los Angeles Times averaged 51 pages of words annually while the reporters of sister paper, The Hartford Courant, averaged 300 pages annually.
     What this had to do with journalism was not made clear but both Zell and Michaels emphasized that the Tribune Company was now aiming for a 50/50 split between news and advertising at all their papers and, as Michaels put it, "This is a new thing! Nobody ever said, 'HOW MANY COLUMN INCHES DID SOMEONE PRODUCE?"
     They both acted like they'd discovered cold fusion and cured cancer all at the same lunch. It was all such nonsense. Just a way to justify more bodies being sent out the door.
     As Michael Kinsley put it in Slate, "my first day on the job as copy-editor at the Royal Oak Daily Tribune, the chief copy-editor said something that has inspired me ever since. Remember," he said, "every word that you cut saves the publisher money."
     So, writing more means you're a better reporter for the Tribune Company in 2008?
     Zell and Michaels said that the new 50/50 plan would result in a minimum of 500 less pages of news a week combined in all Tribune newspapers.
     They said massive job cuts were imminent.
     And they said the Trib company's new design ideas would begin with the Orlando Sentinel, my own daily newspaper, starting June 22, next Sunday.
     Well, lets see, the Sentinel already lost its longtime publisher, Kathleen Waltz, who retired as soon as Sam Zell took control of the paper last year. Since her resignation, the Orlando Sentinel's publisher has been Howard Greenberg, the publisher of the Tribune co-owned Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, who runs both papers now.
     When Zell arrived in town and met the Sentinel staff under a tent in the parking lot downtown, he got angry at a question from a staffer and declared that "the attitude of elite journalists wasn't going to work here anymore."
     He then surly barked, "Fuck you too!" as he gestured toward the woman and collapsed into his seat after the diatribe.
     OK then.
     Also, since the publisher wasn't necessary, I see from accumulating empirical evidence, that the proof-readers were also let go.
     I never thought I'd see misspelled and repeated words on the front page of the Orlando Sentinel but during the last few weeks they've become a regular occurrence.
    My point is that, as the newspaper business continues to undergo declining revenues and disappearing growth as the market changes drastically in the new digital age, it appears to be copying the suicidal motif of commercial broadcasting.
     Cutting, cutting, cutting. But adding nothing of value to bring new customers in or even keep the ones they've got.
     "Talent is the worst part of the radio business".
     "Bud" Paxson, who owned the last station I worked for, said that on the cover of Broadcasting Magazine just before deregulation kicked in.
     From a pure business standpoint, I understand the ethic. Immediate profits are attractive to me as anybody else.
     However, sacrificing the true value of your product by cutting costs and indulging in, essentially self-serving short cuts to make the quarterly statement look better for Wall Street just benefits the few at the top.
     And it doesn't last long, provides nothing for the future value of the company and abuses the lives of employees.
     That's the reason why current commercial radio will end up being auctioned off for other uses within a decade or two. The business model has collapsed. The audience is gone or going and there's too much competition. And radio to cell phones is as much of a joke as HD radio.
     Call me when you find someone on the street who uses it and is excited about it.
     Truth is, people will not sit though four five-minute commercial breaks every hour. Boomers will but Generations X, Y and Z, the millennials, now appear have no use for radio whatsoever.
     Because, other than AAA and the occasional heritage news or sports station, IT DOESN'T MATTER.
     The music's gone, the talent's gone, the interest's gone.
     And now we see the newspaper business getting ready to do the same thing as radio.
     Killing itself to save itself.
     It appears to me that today most radio GM's are only working towards the end of their career. Zero effort is put into the future. Their own immediate financial future is their guiding professional concern.
     Now, Zell is a private owner now but appears to be aiming to set up his newspaper chain as a static cash-flow business like radio and hope he stumbles onto something that will blow up on the Web. Great idea while you're killing your brands.
     As the newspaper industry prepares to follow that same business model,(notice that investment is never a part of these survival schemes?) it could seriously hurt the development of profession journalism in this country.
     The world is flattening, as the New York Times' Thomas Friedman put it in his best-selling book.
     I just hate seeing the people with true journalistic ability declining as the media business puts less and less demand on finding and developing talent.
    The loss of Tim Russert just leaves us one less iconic voice to cut through the self-serving treacle that is too much of today's media world.

TV: One trend that's developed in the summer season is the success of original cable television series featuring strong, attractive women. And that's part of AAA's target audience. Former Mrs. Howard Stern, (in "Private Parts"), Mary McCormack, is a Witness Protection Agent on "In Plain Sight" which has debuted to more-than-respectable ratings Sunday nights at 10pm on the USA Network. Not bad. On Monday night, Emmy-winner Mary-Louise Parker returns (with special guest Albert Brooks) for a new season of "Weeds" on Showtime, also at 10pm TNT's double shot of Kyra Sedgewick as "The Closer" and Holly Hunter in "Saving Grace" will debut new seasons coming up on July 14... It's new guests on The Daily Show With Jon Stewart this week starting with former U.S. district attorney David Iglesias on Monday followed by CBS Middle-East reporter Lara Logan on Tuesday, Steve Carell on Wednesday and Mike Myers on Thursday...On The Colbert Report this week it's new shows with authors Kenneth Miller on Monday and Jonathan Zittrain on Tuesday, CURE directors (Community Understanding for Racial & Ethnic Quality) Dr. Uma Mysorekar and Junot Diaz on Wednesday and author Bishop N.T. Wright on Thursday...All shows are new this week: On Letterman it's Adele on Monday, Dr. John & Stevie Wonder on Tuesday, Martha Wainwright on Wednesday and The Baseball Project on Friday...Leno has Amos Lee on Monday, Jewel on Tuesday, Against Me! on Wednesday and Duffy on Thursday...On Conan it's My Morning Jacket on Thursday and Alejandro Escovedo on Friday...Jewel on Jimmy Kimmel on Wednesday...John Hiatt on Craig Ferguson on Tuesday and finally, NBC/Universal could finalize a $4 billion+ purchase of the Weather Channel this week.

MOVIES: "The Incredible Hulk" continued Marvel Studios' incredible run this summer as the studio (which hired Universal for distribution) followed up its relatively surprising "Iron Man" success with a debut at #1 for the Ed Norton-starring remake. $54.5 million. Last week's #1 "King Fu Panda" fell to second with a still-healthy $34.3 million. M.Night Shyamalan's "The Happening" beat expectations by a long-shot, opening at #3 with $30.5 million. "Please Ignore The Zohan" fell to fourth with $16.4 million and "Indiana Jones 4" took in another $13.5 million in fifth. This solid June lineup has pushed Hollywood ahead of last year's record setting box-office numbers. Attendance is up 1.6% compared to last year so far in 2008...Opening next week is the return of Mike Myers in "The Love Guru" up against Steve Carell and Anne Hathaway in "Get Smart" which John Anderson of Variety says is "nothing you want to take off your shoe and call home about."

SCHMUTZ: Like it or not, radio is going to end up paying a performance royalty tax. While the NAB may say they have 201 U.S.House members against the idea, looks like the majority of the rest of Congress sympathizes with the artists' side. Expect some law to be passed eventually, but it will be less then what the labels want and may not not take place until next year, when a Democratic President and Congress are likely to be in power. But honestly, your typical congressman is clueless to the facts of the radio and records business. They're going to do something... Lee Trink's gone at Capitol and Jason Flom's leaving Virgin. Not a shock since EMI announced the merging of the two labels last year. I got an indication earlier this year about how bad the problems at EMI could be when The Economist reported on a meeting new CEO Guy Hands decided to have with kids pulled off the streets of London for an impromptu research panel. After grilling the two  dozen about buying habits and music preferences, the kids were told to "help yourself to the CD's over on the table on your way out." Nobody took any of them according to the Economist....Raise your hand if you think that BMG looks like it will accept whatever Sony offers to get out of their deal. The Germans appear to have the motor running in the parking lot, thay want out so fast...My friend Brock Whaley at KPOI Honolulu says he thinks "Cardiac Incident" was a cut on that third Santana album...Thanks to Steve Meyer at AllAccess for pointing out comedian/writer/director Christopher Guest is back as Spinal Tap's Nigel Tufnel with some wonderful, hilarious promos on the National Geographic Web site for the cable net's upcoming "Stonehenge" special. Go to channel.nationalgeographic.com, click the NGC Videos, click History & Events and click Nigel's Theories. The potato experiments did it for me! 

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk

Archive: 6/8/08

NON-COMM WRAPUP
 
      Last week, I began my coverage of the Eighth Annual NON-COMMvention in Philadelphia by pointing out how well AAA and non-commercial radio continue to perform in the current world of radio. While commercial radio as a whole, continues to lose both local and national advertising business at an increasingly alarming level, AAA keeps chugging along raising more money in shorter time spans as their audiences keep growing.
      Jackie Nixon of NPR Research pointed out how the AAA audience, both commercial and non-commercial, continues to be wealthier, more loyal (longer TSL), more tech savvy and therefore attractive.
      My impression from the first two convention panels led me to believe that, while the format has been doing better than competing formats by a mile, there is still opportunity to increase audience and income by simply presenting ourselves with more confidence and pride to our non-comm boards, audiences, underwriters and advertisers.
      Simply. AAA can still sell itself better.
 
      The third NON-COMM panel I attended was "Triple A in a PPM World," in which Dave Sullivan of the Radio Research Consortium broke down the initial findings of how Arbitron's switch from diaries to the new personal people meter (PPM) for radio audience measurement would affect AAA.
      Right now, only two markets, Philadelphia and Houston, are using PPM's. Arbitron wants to employ them in New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, San Jose, Nassau/Long Island and Riverside/San Bernadino in September.
      But there are still issues to be resolved, including both accreditation by media buyers and the continuing complaints of some of Arbitron's radio customers. That CEO Bob Neil at Cox Broadcasting signed a contract with Arbitron but is still criticizing them at the same time is one indication of how dysfunctional the current radio industry is.
      After Arbitron settles these issue, it plans to have PPM's in the top 50 markets by 2010.
      First thing about PPM - the machines are much more accurate than the diary method, Actual frequencies are always picked up on the machine. They don't have to be remembered like a person keeping a diary, in which well-known brand names would often be written down while actual second and third listening choices would be either forgotten or left off the diary.
      As first seen when Nielsen switched to Local People Meters (LPM)'s a few years ago. Average quarter hours go down and cumes go up. Especially for the stations often lost in the mix. Like a non-comm AAA, commercial AAA's and typical AOR or alternative stations.
      What pisses off the big ownership groups (like Cox) is that longtime market leaders with big brand call letters often see their shares drop drastically. Because the audience measurement is now more accurate. All those frequencies set on buttons in the car (what? 18 of them, if you're punching through searching for a song that's decent) will now show up. If only fleeting. Cume goes up for stations that didn't get their fair remembrances in the past. Longtime market leaders suffer as the reality of their audiences falls to a more reasonable (accurate) level.
      Consequently, as time spent listening is more accurate, it often leads to declining average quarter hour measurements. Those old 7:59am to 8:16am time check tricks in morning drive don't work like they once did. The station gets one quarter-hour instead of three, if the listener had fallen for that trick and written down a 17-minute listening span that was actually only 12 minutes from 8:02am to 8:14am. That's just an example but you get my point.
      Since human recollection is no longer as important, the incessant repetition of call letters and frequencies is no longer as important with Arbitrons PPM's as it once was. But branding is still important, you still want word of mouth and the listeners still have to know who you are. Just doesn't have to be as annoying as the CBS alternative here in Orlando that used to say its frequencies six to eight times each break.
      With PPM's, Arbitron is using a smaller sample. In Philadelphia 1,500 PPM's replace approximately 4,000 diaries. Also, time-spent-listening (TSL) is now referred to as actual-time-exposed (ATE).
       Bottom line, PPM's are so much better at finding actual AAA listeners. Audience sharing figures are much more specific and better.
       P-1's make up 26% of WXPN's cume in Philadelphia now versus 70% when the city used diaries.
       Phantom cume is no longer phantom. It's real.
       By the way, WXPN's Internet stream is encoded for the PPM. Online numbers can start showing up on Arbitron reports. Both over-the-air and online reports will be available from Arbitron and they can obviously be combined. Stations should encode their webstreams.
      Interesting thing I noticed when WXPN broke down their PPM statistics was when Bruce Warren showed the lowest ratings dip on the screen and pointed out that it was during their fund drive. Now, it's understandable why folks may leave during a drive but what I noticed was how the XPN numbers immediately returned to their average daily numbers on the day the drive ended. The audience was loyal, engaged and, hell, smart enough to return exactly when the station returned to its normal programming routine. Can other music formats claim that kind of response from their audience? Incredible.
     One last thing on the PPM's. Arbitron is finally using cell phones to establish their samples for the PPM and will continue as they roll out through the rest of the top 50 markets. It's about time.
      
     On Friday morning the founder of the Radio and Internet Newsletter (R.A.I.N.), Kurt Hanson, gave his presentation that opened with him stressing how streaming offers the most growth opportunities in the new digital age.
     Internet radio is becoming ubiquitous said Hanson. The Internet is everywhere as the explosion of new mobile devices continues. Just wait until Wimax and LTE get here.
     Hanson pointed out how that anyone with a GPS connection essentially will be able to get Internet radio in their car. He also embraced Chris Anderson's "Long Tail" theory pointing out that there is only so much room on the over-the-air spectrum and that as the generic quality of current commercial music radio continues, it will just keep driving listeners away to finding a channel that suits their needs. Either over-the-air or over the Internet.
     "Radio is live and local. Internet is data-base driven and global," said Hanson, adding that evolving value choices in the new digital age will include more loyalty to the GUI. Or the graphical-user-interface brand. In other words, people love their iPods or their iPhones or their Blackberries or their Centros or whatever piece of hardware they choose.
      Two main items from Hanson: quality of your streaming will become more important. The value of podcasting will continue to grow too. Posting a jock's 1 to 2pm hour may be the future. With a song list and features, of course. She heard it on a tuner but may want to download it at home.
      As far as royalties, Hanson had an opinion that many of the programmers and even the independent promoters on hand agreed on. The labels and the RIAA have waited too long in their attempt at getting a performance royalty rate passed before further negotiations on a definitive Internet radio royalty act.
      But as the labels continue to wait and wait after getting off to such a late start, the chances of the RIAA and the labels getting the royalty rates they desire from both radio and the Internet decreases. Especially in regards to Internet radio, the horse will have already left the barn way before they get their act, and therefore their political support, together.
     
      The last panel  was "The Differences Between Us" moderated by WXPN's Dan Reed on Saturday morning which was the annual dialog about the relationship between radio and the record labels. Russ Boris from WFUV in New York City and Mike Vasilikos from WTMD Baltimore were joined by Jesse Barnett of Right Arm Resource and Red's Chrissy Zagami.
     As is usually the case, label reps want more communication and listening while radio begs for understanding as the amount of music to be listened to grows.
      Borris pointed out he now gets 150 digital tracks every Monday while Vasilikos gets at least 100 to go along with mailed discs. Jesse Barnett pointed out that SBR, at the Boulder Summit two years ago, said that stations received 30,000 annual releases in 2004 that grew to 60,000 annual releases in 2006. Radio all pointed out that there were still only 24 hours in a day.
      Borris complained specifically about too many IM's in the new age. Barnett asked that PD/MD's at least respond to e-mail inquiries especially when  they are out during their call times. Jeff Appleton, from the floor, asked for a little more attention to details, as he said that less then 10 programmers had even responded to a free Big Head Todd CD giveaway offer.
      WXPN's Bruce Warren pointed out the best idea to me when he said that radio should always be serviced  on new songs before, or at least at the same time the songs are posted on MySpace, iTunes etc. Labels today keep sending out mixed signals. So communication on both sides still needs to get better.
      Overall, the Eighth Annual NON-COMMvention produced great music and civil, honest communication about our changing business.
      I was impressed with the attention to detail and the amount of energy I saw from the AAA community in Philadelphia. I realize that next year will be even more important as new hardware hits our listeners and new royalty issues hit the market.

MOVIES: "Kung Fu Panda" took in $15 million more than Paramount/Dreamworks' tracking expected over the weekend, ending up with $60 million for first place at the weekend box-office. SONY's investment in Adam Sandler continued to pay off as "You Don't Mess With The Zohan" opened in second with $40 million, meeting expectations. Paramount's "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" took in another $22.8 million in third place. Warner Brothers' "Sex and the City" fell 63% from last weekend's monster debut but still had $21.3 million to take fourth place. Universal's "The Strangers" continued its surprising performance with another $9.3 million in fifth. Paramount/Marvel's "Iron Man" was sixth with $7.5 million. Both "Iron Man" and "Indiana Jones 4" should pass $300 million domestically next weekend. Overall the weekend box-office was up 29% from the same weekend a year ago. Opening next weekend is "The Incredible Hulk" starring Ed Norton, Liv Tyler and The Rock. Also opening will be director M.Night Shyamalan's latest attempt to recreate his "Sixth Sense" mojo, "The Happening", a horror epic with Mark Wahlberg and "The Promotion", a comedy starring John C. Reilly. By the way, the "Onion Movie" went directly to DVD last Tuesday after sitting on the shelf since 2003. It's intermittently funny but really not a complete success. More like a new millennium version of the 70's "Kentucky Fried Movie". Zillions of bits strung together with no theme and not all of the bits work. Sounded great at that dinner meeting though. The ideas work better in quicker, smaller items in the current "Onion" Web site/syndication fashion.

ONION HEADLINE OF THE WEEK: "Things Amy Winehouse Mumbled Before She Stole Our Coffee Maker."

TV: It's summer. So it's sports until the cool, cable series start in a few weeks. The U.S. Open from Torrey Pines in San Diego will have a hook with the return of Tiger Woods starting Thursday. ESPN and NBC will split coverage the first two days from noon to 10pm on Thursday and Friday then NBC goes from 4 to 10pm. on Saturday and then 3 to 9pm on Sunday. I understand from overhearing comments from the galleries at televised golf events that Mr. Woods is "the man". Immediately after the utterance of that phrase, "you're the man!", the person saying it during Tiger's backswing is known as "the receiver of a fist-to-the-face by Wood's caddie Steve Williams." A self-description that eventually rolls out of his broken jaw like an Amy Winehouse mumble...Guests on new shows this week include Gnarls Barkley on Letterman Monday followed by Alanis Morissette on Tuesday, Jakob Dylan on Wednesday and Emmylou Harris on Thursday...Leno has Aimee Mann on Monday and Sheryl Crow on Tuesday...NON-COMM highlight Sharon Jones and the Dap Kings will be on Conan this Wednesday...On Craig Ferguson he welcomes MGMT on Monday and Augustana on Tuesday...Moby on Carson Daly on Monday...Guests on The Daily Show this week will include Virginia Senator Jim Webb on Monday, veteran GOP operative Ralph Reed on Wednesday and NBC's Iraq correspondent Richard Engel on Thursday...On The Colbert Report this week it's The New Yorker's Phil Weiss on Monday, author Alan Rabinowitz on Tuesday, author David Hadju on Wednesday and environmentalist Dixon Despommier from Columbia University on Thursday.

FINALLY: "Radio, shedding talent as fast as it loses audience, is rapidly becoming irrelevant to the younger generation. Yet most Americans still isten to something for much of their day. Radio could be the way into those ears, but only if it invests in creating compelling reasons to be there, only if it grabs hold of us the way the voices of past decades connected to the loves, pains and dreams of young listeners. As always, the future lies in the past."
     Those were the last words in the last column by The Washington Post's Marc Fisher last week. He'd been writing about radio in the Post for the last 15 years. Now, the Post will no longer have a reporter cover the radio industry because it is "becoming irrelevant". The New York Daily News is also cutting its radio coverage. Do any of you believe the Chicago Tribune will cover radio anymore when it starts slashing staff at all its papers June 22?
      This is what deregulation and the dependence on syndication and the 300-song researched music list has wrought. Business down, no growth, now less and less coverage as a business.
      AAA is still the one music format on the air that still replicates the simple values of communicating and bringing interesting, cool music to its audience. Something all of radio did at its beginning 75 years ago.
      Remember what Alan Freed said. "They know when you're listening."
      AAA is the only format left still using its head.

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk

Archive: 6/3/08

WE AREN'T THE PIPELINE. WE'RE THE OIL.
- KTBG (The Bridge) Kansas City PD Jon Hart

     The Eighth Annual AAA NON-COMMvention in Philadelphia was a terrific one this year. Great weather. The Phillies are winning. Chris Matthews is set to go after Arlen Specter's Senate seat in 2010 and host station WXPN sounded like the format leader they are as their entire staff, led by General Manager Roger LaMay, VP/PD Bruce Warren and OM/MD/NON-COMM creator Dan Reed pooled their estimable talents to again produce a gathering for the non-commercial AAA stations in the country that was both beneficial and buzz-worthy cool!
     Big picture: Attendance was about 400. A total similar to last year's. More folks came in from the northeast because of Philly's proximity but some of our friends out West didn't make it due to, I'm thinking, a combination of the higher cost of flying and the decline of the record labels promotional budgets that once helped some smaller market programmers make the trip.
     There was a nice turnout of commercial AAA's once again too. The always lovely Barbara Dacey from WMVY/MVY Radio in Martha's Vineyard, the Reverend Coes from Nashville's WRLT, Fish from KMTN (The Mountain) in Jackson Hole, Zeb Norris from WNCS (The Point) in Vermont and quite a few others enjoyed the meetings held at the World Cafe Live and WXPN studios and at the Inn at Penn over on the University of Pennsylvania campus.
     Triplearadio.com Founder and Editor Dave Chaney didn't make it to this one as his 80-year old mum had a, let's say, "coronary incident" the day before the convention so Dave stayed back in California as a little love, a little scary news, and a lot of tests were undertaken as he went through one of those "WTF?" situations that boomers like us are becoming all too familiar with these days as our parents age. As of this writing she was ok by the way, so I tried to cover as much as I could for the site as a single source. My impressions follow:

BEST PERFORMANCE BUZZ: Interscope's CARNEY. Young Cal kids who sounded like, "A mix of Jeff Buckley and Led Zeppelin" according to Dan Reed.
The "who the heck is this?" moment of the convention. Always a good sign.

BEST RECORD BUZZ: "Thank You Too" from My Morning Jacket. Tossed in as a 'guess who this is' afterthought by Sean Coakley at the end of the Music Meeting. Best received song of that afternoon along with the Music Meeting winner, "Two Silver Trees" by Calexico which really impressed the WXPN listeners in attendance.

MY PERSONAL FAVORITE SURPRISE: Even in a recession, non-comms seemed to have no trouble raising money from their fund drives. I got excited a few years back when New York's WFUV pulled in $800,000 in a spring session. WFPK in Louisville matched that total this past spring. WNTI in Hackettstown, New Jersey doubled what they got last spring. Across the board, the majority of stations exceeded their goals and most did it in a shorter campaign. This just proves how loyal the AAA non-comm audience is and shows how valuable AAA non-comm listeners consider their local stations. Also shows how much money the AAA demo has. Which leads us to the first session at the convention.
 
PANEL - WHAT IS AAA AND WHO LISTENS? Jackie Nixon of NPR Research gave us a fascinating breakdown on the entire AAA format both commercial and non-commercial. The audience for AAA is one of the most highly educated of any format. And also wealthy. Something highly attractive to underwriters. Not anything unknown to us but she reinforced these attributes as she also noted that the AAA format is not as well defined in the world today as it needs to be. 230 stations in the NPR fold are now playing at least some AAA. It is a key growing format in public radio. With AAA listeners there is a large crossover to news/talk. Commercial AAA's play tons more 80's music than non-comm AAA's. During the radio industry's recent difficulties, AAA has been very steady in audience trends on public radio. Not going through the ratings bumps like commercial radio. Nixon said AAA's AQH (average quarter hour) share is likely to be increasing going forward. The non-comm AAA audience is extremely tech savvy, owns MP3's, reads blogs but the non-comm AAA's are better at holding their audience in our time-shifting digital age than commercial stations. Nixon pointed out that this is a very impressive attribute in the marketplace right now. They love the product of their station. Nixon reminded us that as the age of podcasting and streaming it is more important than ever to make sure that a station is programmed and executed well. In this day of increasing choices and competition, you have to program good all the time! You just can't let jocks wing it. They have to focus.
 
PANEL - MAKING THE CASE FOR AAA XPN GM Roger LaMay, PD's Jon Hart of KTBG (The Bridge) in Kansas City, Chris Wienk of WEXT (The Exit) in Albany and Stacy Owen of WFPK in Louisville were on the panel. One item that came up again was the fact that sometimes even board members of existing AAA non-comms have difficulty sometimes grasping exactly what AAA is. It's a semantic problem but also a problem of understanding. Breaking it down to "adult rock" or describing the station as the "only station in town that plays Dylan, Radiohead and Neil Young" is one way I suggested. Otherwise the news was rather good. WFPK raised more than their NPR sister station even though that station had a larger audience! I remembered that. Another indication of AAA's appeal. Stacy also pointed out how AAA has grown 85% on public radio from 1997 to 2007.  Both Jon and Stacy emphasized that their station's connection to community is a key to their success and formatic presentation. Chris pointed out  that he presented AAA in a tone similar to classical and his board approved of the format "in 5 minutes". There's a reason these people are PD's. Jon Hart had the best line of the convention too, when he pointed out, "We Aren't The Pipeline. We're The Oil!". This was just after he mentioned that KTBG had raised 60% more than the previous fund-drive this spring.
 
Those were just the first two panels. In next weekend's The Forest, I'll wrap up my coverage of the NON-COMM in Philly by covering the PPM session which was extremely revealing, I'll also give you my note's on Kurt Hanson's speech and coverage of the Radio vs. Records final panel hosted by Dan Reed on Saturday. Pardon me now but I've got to get two teeth pulled. My head swelled to twice its size as soon as I returned from Philly. I apologize. But getting teeth pulled - it's like getting the rest of commercial music radio to sound as good and get as enthusiastic an audience response as AAA demonstrated at the Eighth Annual NON-COMM.

—Mike Lyons

Discuss! Visit the AAA live forum: TalkTalk
                                                                     
Archive: 5/26/08

AAA 2008 - STATE OF THE FORMAT.
    
      It's no secret to regular readers of The Forest that I've spent the last eight or nine years simply chronicling and encouraging the growth of the AAA format. Of course this format is my bliss, as Joseph Campbell would put it. The artists, the songs, the presentation and values are almost identical to the ethos I had as a teenager who had the wonderful fortune to be a successful album-rock-station music director when I was but 19. The instincts that I shared with the staff of WORJ-FM in Orlando led to a 7+ share 12+ back in the early 70's. That was rare at the time. Today, those same instincts are sadly absent from the, now unregulated, business of radio, except at the AAA format.
     As the 8th Annual Non-Commvention approaches next weekend in Philadelphia, I'm pleased to once again point out how well this format of great music, sincere, bullshit-free presentation and easy-to-understand value has done in the year since our last NON-COMM.
     This year, the hole's filled in.
     Last year (2006-2007) I told you about a record-setting annual amount of 16 new AAA stations that had signed on to the format. Incidentally, the numbers I used include the two stations the format had lost to other formats (crab-ass tight AC). I prefer to get my math correct. New AAA's came to Washington D.C., Cleveland, Milwaukee and Rochester, among others.
     This year, the amount of new AAA's was smaller, eight new stations. But the markets that got them were huge.
     First, there was Emmis' WRXP in New York City. A commercial station to go with the increasingly successful non-comm at Fordham University, WFUV.  Also in New York City, WNYE (Radio Liberation) signed on in March as a new public station featuring selected programming from KEXP in Seattle along with WXPN's "World Cafe" and their own on-air talent. This year, in the country's largest market, AAA is drinking radio's milkshake.
     In the nation's second largest market, Los Angeles, KCRW's legendary sound will now be complimented by Bonneville's new KSWD, which has sounded remarkable deep and well-programmed from the start. The addition of new air talent to both WRXP and KSWD has just begun so the jury is still out on the issue of on-air presentation, but the recent addition of MTV vet Matt Pinfield to the morning show at New York's WRXP shows great potential.
     In market #17, San Diego, the CBS Hot/AC KSCF moved towards a AAA position, especially in their re-currents and back catalog. In Denver, KTNI joined market and format pioneer KBCO and non-comm KCUV.
     In a surprise move, Entercom, while going through drastic cutbacks that indicated how difficult this year has been for commercial radio other than AAA, blew up KYYS in Kansas City and launched AAA KBLV, the Boulevard. Out in California, KPIG's network expanded to KZAP in Chico. Also joining the AAA fold were non-comm WEXT in Albany, New York and commercial stations WXRY in Columbia, South Carolina and WCTG in Salisbury/Ocean City, Maryland.
     The AAA format lost two stations last year. KSQY in Rapid City, South Dakota and WDOD in Chattanooga.
     Again, it has long been my position that the AAA format is the sole format in the current range of terrestrial music radio stations that can break through the public's obvious disconnect with radio in 2008, due to the lack of being special, topical or even relating to an audience. The vast majority of 2008 music radio formats has been ground down to a safe, mass-appeal background music service with an aim for a mass audience. In a day when shooting for the masses is no longer possible. AAA has aimed for a more achievable goal from the beginning. A niche of boomers with an appeal to Gen's X,Y and the millennials featuring cool songwriting craft and performance combined with an intelligent presentation of value. Topical, informative, cool. The kind of radio that actually communicates with its audience and talks to you like your friends naturally do. Something the rest of radio no longer provides. Because it costs too much. Provides too much  risk. Takes too much effort.
     The radio industry continues to decline on the whole. Business is down both locally and nationally according the RAB. Time spent listening to radio has been declining since 1989 according to Arbitron.
     The result has been that the AAA format is the only format in radio showing growth. Attracting and holding it's target audience. Billing better. Raising money better. All because they're working harder and have embraced the challenge of risk involved with creating a new and better product every day over the air.
      This is why people respond. They relate. They're loyal to their AAA station. And they're grateful when they're asked to support their non-comm in a fund drive or simply remember an advertiser on a commercial station.
       Interestingly, while the country has fallen into a recession, most non-comm AAA's have still met or exceeded their fundraising goals in the past year. This is because they have developed and continued a healthy relationship with their niche audience. Who are loyal.
       Now, in 2008's  tough economic times, that successful relationship with their niche has kept the AAA non-comms in better stead financially than their commercial brothers and sisters across the street.
     Who still don't even back announce what they've just played.
     Because they're sick of what they just played.
     You can hear it in their tone of voice. Tired, bored, uninspired. Totally no fun.
     AAA, as a format, has worked to stay away from that cheap, lazy posture from its beginning.
     While commercial music radio wallows in their hole. Digging deeper and deeper. AAA is standing on the ground listening to the wonderful new sounds.
     It's never that hard.
     See you Thursday night at the World Cafe Live with our Triplearadio.com/Spectre Music Opening Night Party with performances from Sharon Jones & The Dap-Kings and Jim White starting at 11pm.

BIZ: I know not every non-comm uses NPR services but the fact is that our NON-COMMvention host this week, WXPN, has become the source for a huge number of NPR's online music channels and I find it a good source of big-picture accuracy to follow NPR's national numbers because it gives us such a good picture of the national trends on radio listenership. Last October 10, Sarah McBride pointed out in The Wall Street Journal that "NPR had 25.5 million listeners last year versus 13 million in 1997. They had 800 member stations up from 635 in 1997. NPR's 'Morning Edition' has risen across the country and is consistently the most popular morning show in Seattle."
        Speaking of Seattle, from Tom Taylor's "Taylor On Radio-Info" (www.radio-info.com/newsletter) on Friday May 16, 2008: " 'WHO'S REALLY #1 IN SEATTLE?' That would be p